ARMA model
Budget: $10 – $30 AUD
Take the solar radiation data from File HalfHourSolarRadiation2017, and copy it into File Power_SpectrumGeneric, and run the power spectrum tool to find out which frequencies are important.
• Use File Power_SpectrumGeneric to find the Fourier series model for the seasonality. Note that the Template is designed for hourly data. You will have to make some adjustments to use it for half hourly data plus change the relevant frequencies if necessary.
• Take the difference between the data and the Fourier model - the residuals - and take them to Minitab and find the best ARMA(p,q) model.
• Use the ARMA model to forecast one step ahead for the residuals and add that to the Fourier series model to get the full one step ahead forecast.
• Use the error metrics defined below to evaluate the model.
• Use the models you have developed for 2017 to see how they perform for the 2018 data, the out of sample data. Comment on the differences in the error
metrics.
• Use File Power_SpectrumGeneric to find the Fourier series model for the seasonality. Note that the Template is designed for hourly data. You will have to make some adjustments to use it for half hourly data plus change the relevant frequencies if necessary.
• Take the difference between the data and the Fourier model - the residuals - and take them to Minitab and find the best ARMA(p,q) model.
• Use the ARMA model to forecast one step ahead for the residuals and add that to the Fourier series model to get the full one step ahead forecast.
• Use the error metrics defined below to evaluate the model.
• Use the models you have developed for 2017 to see how they perform for the 2018 data, the out of sample data. Comment on the differences in the error
metrics.