Decision Tree Sensitivity & Option Extension Analysis (Precision Tree / Excel)
Budget: ₹12,500 – ₹37,500 INR
'm looking for an expert to complete a university-level assignment based on decision tree modeling, sensitivity analysis, and value of information.
? What the project involves:
Part 1: Sensitivity Analysis
Create a copy of an existing decision tree model (file: Recreational Properties 2) and save as Recreational Properties 3.
Perform sensitivity analysis on the probabilities related to:
Obtaining the lease
Getting a good reputation
Use Precision Tree or Excel to run one-way and two-way data tables.
Use 2% increments in the probability.
Interpret and explain the results clearly.
Part 2: Option Extension & Value of Information
Create another copy and name it Recreational Properties 4.
Analyze the idea of negotiating a one-year extension to the option’s maturity date.
Explain why this could be beneficial.
Compute the Value of Information (VOI), assuming an alternate investment opportunity generates £4 million after a year.
Compare the VOI to the loss of value due to a potential lawsuit (as per question 2).
✅ Requirements:
Strong understanding of decision analysis, Precision Tree, probability sensitivity, and value of information.
Ability to provide clear, step-by-step outputs with conclusions.
Deliverables must be in Excel (with Precision Tree if possible) + brief Word/PDF explanation of findings.
? What the project involves:
Part 1: Sensitivity Analysis
Create a copy of an existing decision tree model (file: Recreational Properties 2) and save as Recreational Properties 3.
Perform sensitivity analysis on the probabilities related to:
Obtaining the lease
Getting a good reputation
Use Precision Tree or Excel to run one-way and two-way data tables.
Use 2% increments in the probability.
Interpret and explain the results clearly.
Part 2: Option Extension & Value of Information
Create another copy and name it Recreational Properties 4.
Analyze the idea of negotiating a one-year extension to the option’s maturity date.
Explain why this could be beneficial.
Compute the Value of Information (VOI), assuming an alternate investment opportunity generates £4 million after a year.
Compare the VOI to the loss of value due to a potential lawsuit (as per question 2).
✅ Requirements:
Strong understanding of decision analysis, Precision Tree, probability sensitivity, and value of information.
Ability to provide clear, step-by-step outputs with conclusions.
Deliverables must be in Excel (with Precision Tree if possible) + brief Word/PDF explanation of findings.