Prefeasibility Study Report: Advancing Electric Mobility in Kisumu
Budget: €30 – €250 EUR
Report Outline:
1. Background
- Current Transportation Scenario in Kisumu:
- The Central Business District (CBD) of Kisumu heavily relies on 2 and 3-wheelers for transportation.
- Public transport is limited, with only a few buses available that operate on inconvenient schedules, leading to low ridership.
- Proposed Transition to Electric Mobility:
- The initiative aims to retrofit 3,000 internal combustion engine (ICE) 2-wheelers and 1,000 ICE 3-wheelers to electric vehicles (EVs).
- To support this transition, 70 solar-powered charging stations (each 2kWp) will be installed: 42 in peripheral and rural wards, and 28 in city center wards. The possibility of home charging will also be explored.
- The transportation sector in Kisumu is primarily managed by private entities, catering to commuters, market traders, and goods transporters.
2. Business Model and Stakeholder Roles
- 1) Vehicle Owners (2 and 3-Wheelers):
- These are primarily commercial operators who will bear the cost of retrofitting their vehicles.
- Current financials: Average daily income is approximately 2,000 KSH for 2-wheelers (including fuel, rent, maintenance, and income) and 4,000 KSH for 3-wheelers.
- Typical daily travel distances: 150 km for 2-wheelers and 200 km for 3-wheelers.
- Post-retrofit, operating costs will be based on current local EV cost data, with charging costs estimated at 200 KSH for 2-wheelers and 300 KSH for 3-wheelers.
- 2) Retrofitting Stations:
- These will function as business centers, owned and operated by private individuals, and funded by financial institutions.
- The setup period is estimated at 2 years, with a specific operational lifespan.
- The retrofitting business will be managed separately from other operations.
- 3) Charging and Battery Swapping Stations:
- These stations, also privately owned and financed, will be responsible for charging batteries using solar power and providing battery swapping services.
- Each station will be powered by a 2kW solar system, ensuring a sustainable energy source.
- Stations must maintain a stock of charged batteries to meet demand at all times.
- 4) Government of Kisumu:
- The government will provide land for the retrofitting stations, covering 100% of the land cost.
- This land will be designated as commercial property, specifically procured for the retrofitting operations.
- 5) Private Sector Participation (PPP Model):
- The retrofitting business and its operations, including maintenance, will be managed under a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model.
3. Financial Analysis
- Cash Flow Projections:
- Cash flows for each of the four entities (vehicle owners, retrofitting stations, charging/swapping stations, and the government) will be analyzed.
- The analysis will be based on local data and information from secondary sources in Kisumu, with references provided.
4. Report Objective
- This report will serve as a comprehensive prefeasibility study, intended for use in a funding pitch to potential investors.
- It will include detailed evaluations of the business model, financial viability, and stakeholder roles, providing a clear pathway for advancing electric mobility in Kisumu.
Report shall consist of following sections:
1. Background and scope
-Description
-Location
-Fulfilled necessity
-power system context
-Infrastructure and logistics
-Scalability
-Political context
-Regulation
-Stakeholders
-Time and phases
-Projected period
-Evaluation of project boundaries and energy system considerations
II. Resource evaluation
-Data collection
-Mapping
-Solar energy generation projects
III. Revenue streams
-Market
-Vertically integrated system
-Existing subsidy schemes or financial support
-Presumed revenue streams
-Other factors to consider
-Evaluation of future power or product demand or prices
Financial assessment and technical key figures
-Projected capital expenditures
-Presumed operational expenditures
-Presumed revenue streams
-Financing schemes
-Financial figures
-Financial risk
Operational assessment
-Development requirements
-Running requirements
-Capacity factor ranges
-Technical risks and constraints
Business case
-Inputs from background and scope
-Discounted cash flow
-WACC, NPV, IRR, PBT, LCOE, Sensitivity analysis, Different approaches in business case evaluation to be considered
Conclusion and references
1. Background
- Current Transportation Scenario in Kisumu:
- The Central Business District (CBD) of Kisumu heavily relies on 2 and 3-wheelers for transportation.
- Public transport is limited, with only a few buses available that operate on inconvenient schedules, leading to low ridership.
- Proposed Transition to Electric Mobility:
- The initiative aims to retrofit 3,000 internal combustion engine (ICE) 2-wheelers and 1,000 ICE 3-wheelers to electric vehicles (EVs).
- To support this transition, 70 solar-powered charging stations (each 2kWp) will be installed: 42 in peripheral and rural wards, and 28 in city center wards. The possibility of home charging will also be explored.
- The transportation sector in Kisumu is primarily managed by private entities, catering to commuters, market traders, and goods transporters.
2. Business Model and Stakeholder Roles
- 1) Vehicle Owners (2 and 3-Wheelers):
- These are primarily commercial operators who will bear the cost of retrofitting their vehicles.
- Current financials: Average daily income is approximately 2,000 KSH for 2-wheelers (including fuel, rent, maintenance, and income) and 4,000 KSH for 3-wheelers.
- Typical daily travel distances: 150 km for 2-wheelers and 200 km for 3-wheelers.
- Post-retrofit, operating costs will be based on current local EV cost data, with charging costs estimated at 200 KSH for 2-wheelers and 300 KSH for 3-wheelers.
- 2) Retrofitting Stations:
- These will function as business centers, owned and operated by private individuals, and funded by financial institutions.
- The setup period is estimated at 2 years, with a specific operational lifespan.
- The retrofitting business will be managed separately from other operations.
- 3) Charging and Battery Swapping Stations:
- These stations, also privately owned and financed, will be responsible for charging batteries using solar power and providing battery swapping services.
- Each station will be powered by a 2kW solar system, ensuring a sustainable energy source.
- Stations must maintain a stock of charged batteries to meet demand at all times.
- 4) Government of Kisumu:
- The government will provide land for the retrofitting stations, covering 100% of the land cost.
- This land will be designated as commercial property, specifically procured for the retrofitting operations.
- 5) Private Sector Participation (PPP Model):
- The retrofitting business and its operations, including maintenance, will be managed under a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model.
3. Financial Analysis
- Cash Flow Projections:
- Cash flows for each of the four entities (vehicle owners, retrofitting stations, charging/swapping stations, and the government) will be analyzed.
- The analysis will be based on local data and information from secondary sources in Kisumu, with references provided.
4. Report Objective
- This report will serve as a comprehensive prefeasibility study, intended for use in a funding pitch to potential investors.
- It will include detailed evaluations of the business model, financial viability, and stakeholder roles, providing a clear pathway for advancing electric mobility in Kisumu.
Report shall consist of following sections:
1. Background and scope
-Description
-Location
-Fulfilled necessity
-power system context
-Infrastructure and logistics
-Scalability
-Political context
-Regulation
-Stakeholders
-Time and phases
-Projected period
-Evaluation of project boundaries and energy system considerations
II. Resource evaluation
-Data collection
-Mapping
-Solar energy generation projects
III. Revenue streams
-Market
-Vertically integrated system
-Existing subsidy schemes or financial support
-Presumed revenue streams
-Other factors to consider
-Evaluation of future power or product demand or prices
Financial assessment and technical key figures
-Projected capital expenditures
-Presumed operational expenditures
-Presumed revenue streams
-Financing schemes
-Financial figures
-Financial risk
Operational assessment
-Development requirements
-Running requirements
-Capacity factor ranges
-Technical risks and constraints
Business case
-Inputs from background and scope
-Discounted cash flow
-WACC, NPV, IRR, PBT, LCOE, Sensitivity analysis, Different approaches in business case evaluation to be considered
Conclusion and references