Engineering risk

Literature Theme
Two people (or One)
Due Dec. 15” Slide pack & presentation
1. Identify a recent article, 2010 or later, on a “Bias” topic covered the course or textbook (see next
page). Pick a subcategory on the next page out of one of these topics
a. Forecasting biases
b. Decision biases
2. Identify five or more papers since 2015 that explore “one” of the topic of biases
a. At least two of the papers must have a formal research design in the form of an
experiment as the basis for the article
b. Find in a seminal article referenced by at least three of the articles. It should have a
publication date sometime between 1990-2010. (Citations >50 as mentioned in Google
Scholar Search.)
3. Develop a slide presentation
a. Describe the topic area 1 slide
b. Seminal article: 2 or 3 slides – provide overview and then details of key findings.
c. Two Articles with research design. For each article you will need
i. Research design (1 slide)
ii. Key findings (1 slide)
d. Three more articles: 1 slide each – key findings or points in each article
e. List of references in alphabetical order in standard journal format.
If you are working alone, read two recent articles, at least one of them must have a research
design. Also, find an early article referenced by both papers that has many citations (>50)
4. Total slides
a. One slide intro about the key researchable topics
b. Three slides for one seminal paper (> 50 citations)
c. Four slides - 2 slides each of two experimental papers (alone just 2 slides)
d. Three slides - 1 slide each of three additional papers (alone 2 slides)
e. One slide references used
 Total 12 or more sides submitted as Homework assignment (9 slides for single person.)
 You will orally present the intro, seminal paper and one experimental paper. Six or seven slides
(excluding cover slide) presented in approx. 10 minutes
Pick any one bias discussed in these sections of the book.
Forecasting Bias
13.2 Motivational and Personal Biases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395
13.3 Point Estimate and Narrow Ranges: Overconfidence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397
13.4 Faulty Probability Reasoning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403
13.5 Availability and Representativeness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404
13.6 Confirmation and Interpretation Bias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406
Decision Making Bias
14.2 Sunk Cost and Escalation of Commitment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424
14.3 Framing Bias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427
14.4 Status Quo and Omission Bias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429
14.5 Regret . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431
14.7 Mood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435