36-Month E-Commerce Financial Model

Overview
I’m launching a personal care product line. Sales will be primarily online via our own website (Shopify) and Amazon. The model must incorporate Amazon listing/marketplace fees, Google Ads (and other paid acquisition to drive DTC sales), COGS per unit, shipping/fulfillment, and all operating expenses. I need a dynamic, fully linked, investor-ready 36-month model with clean assumptions, scenario analysis, and clear outputs (P&L, Cash Flow, Break-Even, Balance Sheet).

Tools & Format
Excel , clearly structured, with a single Assumptions tab driving all other tabs.

Scope of Work
1) Channelized Revenue & Unit Economics

Separate Amazon vs DTC (website) pricing, discounts, units, and growth.

Model Amazon fees (referral %, FBA/FBM, storage, fulfillment) and DTC gateway/Shopify fees.

Reflect paid acquisition (Google Ads, paid social), conversion rates, CAC, LTV, and payback.

2) Cost of Goods & Fulfillment

Itemized COGS per unit: materials, packaging, labor, freight to 3PL/Amazon, pick/pack, last-mile.

Distinguish variable vs fixed costs for contribution margin analysis.

3) Operating Expenses (Detailed)

Marketing: granular line items (e.g., Google Ads, paid social, content, influencers, tools).

Technology, software, website/Shopify apps, analytics.

Personnel & hiring plan with timing, salaries, commissions/bonuses, benefits.

Overhead: 3PL base fees, storage, insurance, professional fees.

4) Funding & Runway

Funding timing/amounts, cap table placeholders, and runway sensitivity.

Clear cash-burn view and alerts when additional capital is required.

5) Deliverables

Fully functional, linked model (Excel).

Scenario controls (pricing, CAC, fees, growth, hiring) and a sensitivity dashboard.

2–3 prebuilt scenarios (Base / Upside / Downside).

Short written guide or Loom walkthrough.

Mandatory Model Standards

1. P&L (Profit & Loss Statement):
• Revenue lines flow from your Revenue Model assumptions (pricing, units, growth rates)
• COGS flows from your variable cost assumptions
• Operating expenses flow from your detailed cost assumptions (personnel, marketing, technology, overhead)
• Every line should trace back to an assumption

2. Cash Flow Statement:
• Operating cash flow comes from P&L but adjusted for timing (when do customers pay? when do you pay
vendors?)
• Investing cash flow reflects any capital expenditures you've assumed
• Financing cash flow shows your funding events from your Funding Requirements assumptions
• Ending cash balance tells you if/when you need additional capital

Break-Even Tab:
• Uses your contribution margin assumptions from Break-Even Analysis
• Shows exactly when you reach cash flow break-even month by month
• Can model different scenarios based on varied assumptions

Balance Sheet : • Assets reflect cash position (from cash flow), any equipment/inventory assumptions • Liabilities reflect any debt assumptions from your funding strategy • Equity shows founder contributions and investor capital from funding assumptions • Should balance based on your capitalization and cash burn assumptions

Assumptions Tab (CRITICAL): • Document EVERY key assumption • Make it easy to change assumptions and see the impact across all statements • Include: pricing, unit volumes, growth rates, COGS per unit, all operating expense categories, hiring plan, CAC, LTV assumptions, funding timing and amounts • Reference cells in your other tabs back to the Assumptions tab, this makes your model dynamic and scenario-ready.

The Connection is Everything: Your final financial model should be a living, integrated set of statements where changing one assumption (e.g., "What if CAC is $100 higher?") flows through automatically to impact your P&L, cash flow, runway, and funding needs. This integration is only possible if you've thought deeply about each assumption.

The More Detail, The Better Don't just say: "Marketing: $10,000/month." Instead, break it down: Paid social ($4k), content marketing ($2k), events ($3k), tools ($1k). Don't just say: "5 employees by end of Year 1." Instead, specify: 1 technical co-founder (Month 0), 1 sales hire (Month 6, $60k + commission), 1 customer success hire (Month 9, $50k), etc. Don't just say: "10% monthly growth." Instead, explain: Based on 50 new customers/month from Month 4-8, scaling to 100/month by Month 12, driven by increasing marketing spend from $X to $Y. This level of detail: • Makes your model defensible • Helps you spot unrealistic assumptions • Allows sophisticated "what-if" analysis • Demonstrates rigor to investors and stakeholders • Most importantly: forces YOU to think through whether your venture model actually works.

Integration Across Sections The strongest model tell a coherent financial story where: • Revenue projections flow logically from customer acquisition plans • Cost assumptions support the operations described in revenue model • Break-even analysis reflects realistic costs and contribution margins • Startup metrics align with projections and industry benchmarks • Funding requirements match the gap between costs and revenue timing Remember: every assumption you document in must flow through to your final 36-month financial statements. The rigor you apply determines the quality and defensibility of your complete financial model.

deal Freelancer

Built financial models for e-commerce/CPG and Amazon sellers.

Strong grasp of CAC/LTV, contribution margin, and working capital timing (Amazon payouts vs DTC).

Communicates clearly; delivers clean structure and documentation.

To Apply

Samples/screenshots of similar financial models.

Brief note on your CAC ↔ LTV modeling approach and payback method.

Fixed price and delivery estimate.

If you can build a living, integrated model that reflects real Amazon + DTC economics for a brand, let’s talk.