Quick Excel Job Assistance Needed
Budget: $14 – $15 NZD
The English national football league is very close to an end.
The 4 bottom sides will get relegated. That might include my beloved York city !! I want simulate how likely this is given my predictions of the probability of outcomes of the remaining games.
The bbc website shows the table and the remaining fixtures.
The only way it can happen is if the 3 sides lower than York all over take York. York and Woking only have one game left. Borehamwood and ebbsfleet have 2, one of which is against each other.
Rankings are conventional. 3 pts fir a win 1 fir a draw, 0 fir defeat. If points totals are equal the different between goals scored and conceded is considered. If that is also equal - quite possible - total scored decides it.
I can supply my judgement of the probability of each result in each game.
In the form of say
Solihull motors vs York city
3-0 5%
2-0 10%
1-0 15%
0-0 10%
1-1 10%
2-2 5%
0-1 5%
0-2 20%
0-3 20%
Ignore other unlikely scores.
So the task is to montecarlo simulate the remaining games, work out the resulting table for say 1000 runs.
And record whether each teams stays up or not !
So result is York 65% probability of survival. Assuming my estimates are good !
The 4 bottom sides will get relegated. That might include my beloved York city !! I want simulate how likely this is given my predictions of the probability of outcomes of the remaining games.
The bbc website shows the table and the remaining fixtures.
The only way it can happen is if the 3 sides lower than York all over take York. York and Woking only have one game left. Borehamwood and ebbsfleet have 2, one of which is against each other.
Rankings are conventional. 3 pts fir a win 1 fir a draw, 0 fir defeat. If points totals are equal the different between goals scored and conceded is considered. If that is also equal - quite possible - total scored decides it.
I can supply my judgement of the probability of each result in each game.
In the form of say
Solihull motors vs York city
3-0 5%
2-0 10%
1-0 15%
0-0 10%
1-1 10%
2-2 5%
0-1 5%
0-2 20%
0-3 20%
Ignore other unlikely scores.
So the task is to montecarlo simulate the remaining games, work out the resulting table for say 1000 runs.
And record whether each teams stays up or not !
So result is York 65% probability of survival. Assuming my estimates are good !