Backend Automation for Marketing Mix Modeling

Job ID: 39902729

Budget: $8 – $15 USD

Project: Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) — Automation Backend (Service Industry Use Cases)

Goal
Develop a production-ready MMM engine that runs end-to-end in automation: data prep → model training → diagnostics → budget optimization → scheduled re-training. Deliver clean, well-tested code that can run headless (CLI/cron/Airflow/Step Functions), configured by YAML/JSON—no UI required.

Scope of Work

1) Data layer (code, not pipelines)

Implement schema-aware loaders that read canonical tables (daily/weekly):

spend, sales, price, promo, optional reach_freq, search_query_volume.

Provide transform utilities (carryover windows, seasonality/calendar features, holidays).

Configurable data contracts (validate columns, grain, nulls, ranges) with clear errors.

2) MMM core modeling

Implement Bayesian MMM with per-channel adstock/carryover and saturation (Hill/logistic).

Support hierarchical pooling (brand/region) and priors; option for frequentist baseline.

Optional bias controls for paid search (e.g., GQV/back-door controls).

Robust uncertainty: posterior samples/intervals for ROAS and elasticities.

3) Calibration & validation

Hooks to calibrate with lift/geo experiments (when provided).

Time-split backtests; out-of-sample diagnostics; fit/forecast metrics.

Automated model selection across adstock/shape families.

4) Budget optimization & what-if

Deterministic optimizer (e.g., constrained nonlinear / Bayesian expected utility) that:

maximizes expected sales/profit under budget & min/max channel constraints,

supports diminishing returns and uncertainty (risk-aware plans).

Fast what-if simulator given proposed spends; emits response curves & KPIs.

5) Automation & packaging

CLI commands (examples below) and config-driven runs; no hard-coded paths.

Idempotent outputs: model_bundle/ (parameters, curves, diagnostics) + plan/.

Containerized (Docker) with reproducible environments; ready for CI.

Comprehensive unit/integration tests; dataset fixtures (synthetic).

6) Documentation

README + quick-start + config reference.

Model math note (one pager) and interpretation guide (curves/ROAS/uncertainty).